A look around Europe for sunshine as one low pressure sits over the UK bringing heavy showers. Disruption from Typhoon Hinnamnor and the progress of Hurricane Danielle.

As the school holidays end, a whole new set of trips begin as people head off in September to avoid the busy family holiday season. Even though we have moved into meteorological autumn, there is still plenty of warmth and daylight to be had across Europe. The UK’s weather will be dominated by a near stationary large area of low pressure. Throughout the week this will bring clusters and bands of heavy showers, even more thunderstorms but with bright sunny spells in between. For those going away in the next few days, the downpours will be hit and miss. The same applies to those heading back to school. You’ll need to take an umbrella or raincoat but still put on sunscreen if outside for any length of time.

Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday look blustery as the winds blow around the low. This flow begins to shift later on Thursday into Friday as the low centre finally moves eastwards across Britain. Temperatures in the UK will stay in the high teens to low twenties right through the week with London perhaps reaching 24 or 25C. It will be mild everywhere by night this week, although it might turn cooler in the far north or northeast by the weekend.

For those having a paddle or even braving a sea swim, this is the warmest time of year for our coastal waters. The Sea Surface Temperatures are reaching 19 to 21C for the English Channel coasts, the Solent and round to the Thames Estuary. Cooler at only 13C in the Moray Firth.

After an empty August, the Atlantic hurricane season has burst into life with Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. Earl is bringing torrential rains to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to start the week but will then head north. Earl could trouble Nova Scotia and Newfoundland by the weekend. Danielle is forecast to move north-eastwards (well out in the mid-Atlantic) and then transition later this week. It still could affect Ireland and the UK but would be an extratropical low by then, not a hurricane. It could bring very wet weather in from the west by Sunday along with high waves, perhaps coastal flooding with the rain continuing into the following week. The ECM model shows Earl heading in from the southwest and adding even more rain to NW Europe. More in the week ahead outlook.

There has been intense heat for parts of the US for Labor Day, from California up the west coast and for the central/northern Plains. This will continue until at least midweek with a high to critical fire risk. The nights are oppressive and daytime records could be broken.

There are also concerns about flash flooding in north-eastern States including thunderstorms across the Appalachians. The region has been suffering from severe drought and so, like in the UK when torrential downpours do arrive, the water just runs off the hard, dry ground. Florida at this time of year is muggy with heavy downpours and the risk of thunderstorms. It is hot and humid with temperatures into the low 30sC (90sF) for DisneyWorld, Orlando.

Typhoon Hinnamnor has moved from the East China Sea to the Sea of Japan. It has been bringing heavy rain and wild conditions. The western Japanese Islands of Nagasaki saw emergency warnings for storm surge and landslides on Monday. Kyushu and other western parts of the main Japanese islands had storm warnings. There have already been flights cancelled with disruption to the railways into Tuesday as factories close. South Korea was also affected overnight as the typhoon passed across the southeastern corner with intense rainfall and some flooding. There were power outages and some disruption but Hinnamnor was soon back over the sea.

In Europe, the near stationary low pressure near to Ireland will continue to throw showers and thunderstorms over NW Europe.  France and western Germany have amber warnings to start the week. Northern Spain will be cloudy and unsettled as one frontal band pushes in from the Atlantic. Heavy showers push their way slowly across central Europe this week into Denmark and the Balkans.  Further south and west the weather stays fine and still warm in the high 20sC to low/mid 30sC. Malaga will be 33C at the weekend. Palma, Majorca 30C.

In the Algarve, this week temperatures will rise from the high 20sC into the low 30sC with high pressure out over the Azores.  Before the frontal bands of ex-Danielle reach the far west of Europe at the end of the weekend, there will be a lot of fine weather across Portugal, Spain, Sardinia and Italy. There will be plenty of fine, very warm weather for the Canary Islands with temperatures into the low 30sC.